North Africa: Political Unrest Unlikely to Affect Corporate Refinancing

Fitch Ratings says that the political uncertainty in Tunis and Cairo is likely to temper investor appetite for the North African region until concerns about potential further regional contagion and a sense of political stabilisation returns. However, subject to a near-term resolution of the crisis, the agency does not believe that current events in Egypt will widen to the GCC countries. As such, Fitch does not expect this crisis to have a long-term impact on GCC corporates' access to funding.

The North African markets are not heavy users of internationally-sourced debt. Corporate bond and loan maturities in the region are estimated by Fitch to total only USD1.8bn 2011 and USD1.6bn in 2012, based on Dealogic data. These maturities are overwhelmingly concentrated in Egypt. Companies facing international debt maturities in 2011 include the state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corp, including both syndicated debt and a future flow transaction by Petroleum Export Limited, and also Al Ezz Rebars. Corporates with sizeable maturities in 2012 include Suez Steel.

Complete report is available at FitchRatings.